Now that the whole Howard thing is coming to fruition I feel compelled to hop up on my soap box and give my 2 cents. There are really 4 sides to this whole thing. You have to look @ this from the standpoint of Sirius, XM, Howard, and Opie & Anthony. Yes these sides overlap in many ways, but lets take a look at each of these separately and then tie it altogether.

Suppose for a minute you’re Mel Karmazin (CEO of Sirius Satellite Radio), I think you see Howard as the savior and the thing that will not only save Sirius, but save Satellite Radio. Sirius has absolutely nothing to lose. It’s no secret how the company has been suffering financially. This is more or less a go for broke move and Karmazin knows it. At $100 million a year there is really no other way to think about it. So right now I gotta think Sirius is very very happy . They have got their name out into the mainstream and they haven’t even paid Howard 1 penny yet, but the question still remains, how do you justify yet actually pay Stern $100 million a year? Extend yourself beyond belief is the first thing that enters my mind.

Now lets think about this from the XM side. If you are Hugh Panero (CEO of XM Satellite Radio) right now what do you think of all this. Well here’s what I think is going through Hugh’s mind right now. I’d say he’s smiling like the cat that swallowed the canary right now. Look at all the free press XM is getting from this. Almost every segment on TV that Ive seen with Howard mentions XM as a competitor and not just a competitor, but a competitor that has a heck of a lot more subscribers than Sirius. On top of that the way XM counts subscribers are very different from the way Sirius does. For those unfamiliar with this. Sirius counts a subscription for every car that rolls off the assemblyline, where XM doesn’t count the subscription until it is actually activated. With the subscriptions aside. To put the Howard thing in perspective from a financial side. XM will have exclusive rights to the NHL starting next season, although this season the NHL is being broadcast on both XM and Sirius. That deal is costing XM $100 million over a 10 year period. With the edition of XM Canada and the NHL doing all they can to improve the league as well as their game. Its hard not to see the ROI here. Oh and of that $100 million XM isn’t even paying all of that. XM did have a shot @ getting Howard, but passed. I don’t think Hugh is looking back on this one at all. I’d have to say at this point XM has to be happy with the way things are going.

No matter what happens in the future I think Howard is in the worst situation out of anyone here….and here’s why I say that. There are 2 sides to this. The first being if he succeeds. Let’s say he does pull in a ton of subscriptions and Sirius does catch up to XM or even dominates the Satellite radio market. With the current financial state of Sirius how long can they afford to flip a $100 million bill because if Howard is successful, he’s obviously going to get incentives and I think the more successful Howard is the deeper Sirius will fall. Let’s say he fails, where does he go from here, back to terrestrial radio? I don’t see that happening somehow or if that did happen I don’t think it would last long.But I must say that Howard’s biggest downfall was refusing to go XM because Opie and Anthony were there, which can only lead me to believe that he’s scared or intimidated by them because of his bullying tactics in the past or he’s just plain scared of them, why else would he refuse to be on the same network they are…it makes no at all.

The folks who have to be salivating the most over this have to be Opie and Anthony. I think they will be the ones who reap the biggest benefit, but before I get into all that. You might be wondering why I don’t lump O and A together with XM. I can’t do that because of the history between Howard and the boys. From what I’ve heard the boys say Howard personally made it very difficult for them to work anywhere due to a gag order that they would have had to sign, which resulted in a 2 year plus layoff. With the presence of Howard on satellite now I think you’ll see Opie and Anthony bring their show up to a new level. The show right now in my opinion is doing well (better than ever actually) and I think will do better with Howard showing up at Sirius. There are going to be people now who are curious about satellite radio, but can’t stand Howard. There are just as many people out there that like Howard out there as hate him (I have to lump myself in the hate category). Those haters are going to flock over to XM and catch the virus. I cant think of a single reason why they wouldn’t.

Well that’s how see things for what its worth. The best thing about all this is that its really putting satellite radio out there in the mainstream. Even though its really been out there for some time. The one big question that I really can’t answer or even take a stab at right now is what will be the effect on terrestrial radio. I’ve spoken to this previously and I think that situation is bad and getting worse. I don’t see any light at the end of that tunnel at all. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out as well, but to answer the question which I initially broached. I think ultimately Howard means a lot to XM right now and I can sum it up in 2 words…more subscriptions.